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Research Database

Browse our research library covering global health and development, animal welfare, AI, cause prioritization, and more. Filter by topic, search by keyword, explore our latest publications, data analysis, and survey results.

Animal Welfare

Wild Animal Welfare Donation Opportunities & Room for More Funding

Tristan Katz Olaia Freiría Richard Parr Hannah Tookey Cameron Meyer Shorb Alyse Spiehler William McAuliffe

We identify five wild animal welfare donation opportunities with a combined estimated 2027 room for more funding of $3.16 million–$8.23 million.

Global Health & Development

Where Better Data Matters Most. Prioritizing Disease Burden Data Gaps in Sub-Saharan Africa

Britta Jewell Jenny Kudymowa Rory Todd Abbie Clare John Firth John Firth

This report examines data gaps in high-disease burden estimates in Sub-Saharan Africa, with particular attention to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)’s Global Burden of Disease framework.

Animal Welfare

Estimating the Number of Shrimp in Major European Markets

Michael Johnston Hannah Moulange

To understand the effects of recent shrimp welfare commitments by European retailers, we estimate the number of shrimp affected by these commitments.

Global Health & Development

Enabling AI for good. Challenges and opportunities

Ruby Emerson Britta Jewell Rory Todd Tom Vargas Aisling Leow Abbie Clare John Firth John Firth

We map barriers to deploying AI for good in low- and middle-income countries and identify promising field-building solutions, especially for context-specific training data.

Global Health & Development

Gavi Marginal Funding and Fundraising Support 2023

Carmen van Schoubroeck Bruce Tsai Jenny Kudymowa Tom Vargas Tom Hird John Firth John Firth

We present a historical 2023 assessment of Gavi’s marginal funding, estimating a $0.7 billion funding gap and a rough social return of 200–1,400 times for likely marginal vaccine programs.

Animal Welfare

How AI is Affecting Farmed Aquatic Animals. Part 2: Deployment

Sophie Williamson William McAuliffe Hannah Moulange

We map the deployment of AI tools across aquaculture and find adoption concentrated among larger producers, with unclear returns on investment the main barrier to wider uptake.

Animal Welfare

AI and Cultivated Meat. Near-Term Impacts of AI on the Commercial Viability of Cultivated Meat

Hannah Moulange William McAuliffe

We reviewed existing and emerging AI applications across the cultivated meat sector's main bottlenecks and asked which bottlenecks AI can meaningfully address and which it cannot.

Global Health & Development

What Do Increasing AI Capabilities Mean For Global Health and Development?

Jamie Elsey Ruby Emerson Kieran Greig John Firth Jerome Mayaud John Firth

We examine how increasingly capable AI could affect global health and development, finding benefits against geographic constraints but risks for institutions and traditional development paths.

Global Health & Development

Research In Brief: Can Climate Change Be More Cost-Effective than the Best GHD Interventions?

Climate giving usually trails top global health interventions, but may rival them when uncertain tipping-point and long-term growth damages are included.

Worldview Investigations

Initial results of the Digital Consciousness Model

Derek Shiller Laura Muresianu Arvo Muñoz Morán Hayley Clatterbuck Adrià Moret Chris Percy

A comprehensive scientific framework for assessing evidence of AI consciousness.

Global Health & Development

Beyond all or nothing: The impacts of breastfeeding promotion

Ruby Emerson James Hu Jamie Elsey Greer Gosnell

We explore how breastfeeding promotion programs shift the distribution of breastfeeding intensity, and the resulting mortality and diarrhea-related health benefits.

Animal Welfare

A Database of Near-Term Interventions for Wild Animals

Bob Fischer William McAuliffe

We evaluate WAW interventions that may be promising in the (relatively) near term, relative to criteria of interest to funders, advocates, researchers, and potential implementers across the WAW space.

Global Health & Development

Health systems strengthening II. Additional analyses and reflections

Jenny Kudymowa Ruby Emerson Aisling Leow

This report is a follow-up to our previous investigation of health systems strengthening, which explored the case for HSS as a potential philanthropic cause area.

Animal Welfare

Review: Electrical Stunning Does Not Yet Ensure Prolonged Insensibility In Several European Finfish Species

Samara Mendez Sagar Shah

We reviewed the evidence on electrical stunning for three small-sized European farmed fish species (~800M killed annually) to help interested stakeholders navigate uncertainty around the effectiveness of this technology in achieving humane outcomes.

Global Health & Development

AI for Health. Landscape review to identify promising areas for impact

Ruby Emerson Jenny Kudymowa Aisling Leow John Firth

In this report, we conducted a rapid landscape scan of AI for health applications to identify areas that appear most promising for further investigation and potential philanthropic support.

Worldview Investigations

We Should Be More Uncertain About Cause Prioritization Based on Philosophical Arguments

Marcus A. Davis

Argues that cause prioritization conclusions based on philosophical arguments are more fragile than often assumed, especially under normative uncertainty.

Global Health & Development

The impacts of maternal mortality. Under-five mortality and household finances

Jenny Kudymowa Tom Vargas Aisling Leow

Our report aims to explore the impacts of maternal mortality on under-five mortality and household finances, with a focus on low-income countries.

Global Health & Development

Landscape of water programs in low- and middle-income countries. Key actors, funding, and challenges

Greer Gosnell Ruby Emerson Tom Vargas Aisling Leow

This report identifies the key actors and funding sources of, and the challenges facing, water programs in LMICs.

Global Health & Development

Better data for better disease burden estimates. Fungal diseases, hepatitis, and malaria

Jenny Kudymowa Dylan Collins Aisling Leow

We examine data inputs and evidentiary strength of underlying selected disease burden estimates and identify promising interventions to improve disease burden data for fungal diseases, hepatitis, and malaria.

Animal Welfare

How AI is affecting farmed aquatic animals. Part 1: Innovation

Sophie Williamson William McAuliffe Hannah Moulange

This report analyzes the current state of AI innovation in aquaculture.

Animal Welfare

Technical feasibility of egg ingredient reduction/replacement in US foods

Samara Mendez William McAuliffe

We describe the most impactful prepared food categories for egg replacement and provide strategic recommendations for funders.

Animal Welfare

Mapping salmon welfare: sea lice treatments

Hannah Moulange Sagar Shah

This second report in the series is a factual overview of the landscape of sea lice treatments in the salmon farming industry.

Animal Welfare

Mapping salmon welfare: a global overview

Hannah Moulange Sagar Shah

We describe the broad patterns of the global salmon farming industry.

Animal Welfare

Interrater reliability of the Cumulative Pain Framework: Welfare threats in egg and chicken production

William McAuliffe

We assessed the extent to which estimates of Cumulative Pain based on the Welfare Footprint Framework vary depending on who is conducting the evaluation.

Worldview Investigations

A Moral Parliament Tool for Distributing Movement Building Resources

Hayley Clatterbuck

We present a Moral Parliament Tool that can be used to set funding priorities across different kinds of EA movement-building projects.

Worldview Investigations

A Moral Parliament Tool for Distributing Resources across Farmed Animal Recipients

Hayley Clatterbuck

We present a Moral Parliament Tool to set funding priorities across different kinds of farmed animals: chickens, fish, shrimp, and insects.

Worldview Investigations

A Moral Parliament Tool for Evaluating GiveWell Projects

Hayley Clatterbuck

We present a Moral Parliament Tool that decides how to allocate resources to GiveWell-evaluated global health charities.

Worldview Investigations

A Moral Parliament Tool for Navigating Bioethical Disagreements

Hayley Clatterbuck

We present a Moral Parliament Tools that incorporates delegates with diverse bioethical views.

Worldview Investigations

Instructions for modifying the Moral Parliament Tool

Hayley Clatterbuck

In this guide we provide instructions to modifying Moral Parliament Tool to specific allocation needs.

Worldview Investigations

Navigating donation dilemmas: customizable Moral Parliament tools for better decision-making

Hayley Clatterbuck

We present our Moral Parliament customization sequence.

Animal Welfare

Research summary: Grinding parameters for humane slaughter of yellow mealworm larvae

William McAuliffe

We explore plate size and fillers as parameters for the humane slaughter of farmed yellow mealworm larvae.

Animal Welfare

Research Summary: The Era Beyond Eisemann—Insect Pain in the 21st Century

Abraham Rowe

Summarizes a peer-reviewed review of insect pain evidence since Eisemann et al. 1984, reassessing whether insects may have morally relevant pain.

Global Health & Development

Improving the Lead Impact Model

Jenny Kudymowa James Hu Tom Hird

Presents a work-in-progress revision of the Lead Impact Model, focusing on estimating health burdens from lead exposure sources with biokinetic modeling.

Surveys & Data Analysis

Adoption and uses of LLMs among U.S. tech workers

Willem Sleegers Jamie Elsey David Moss

A survey of 1963 U.S. respondents with software development or programming backgrounds, focusing on how and to what extent they use large language models (LLMs) in their work.

Surveys & Data Analysis

Estimating the usage and utility of LLMs in the US general public

Jamie Elsey Willem Sleegers David Moss

This report presents findings from a survey of 1,370 U.S. adults conducted in November 2024. The report assesses LLM awareness and usage, highlighting prevalence, use cases and usefulness, perceived productivity impacts, and barriers to adoption.

Surveys & Data Analysis

LLM use in the workplace Qualitative interviews with LLM power users and early adopters

Jamie Elsey Willem Sleegers David Moss

Qualitative interview study of LLM power users, examining workplace use cases, value creation, limitations, and implications for AI adoption.

Global Health & Development

Cost-effectiveness analysis of Lafiya Nigeria intervention

Greer Gosnell Jamie Elsey Tom Hird John Firth John Firth

Updates the cost-effectiveness model for Lafiya Nigeria's family planning intervention, estimating costs per unintended pregnancy averted and related outcomes.

Animal Welfare

Database of sources investigating interventions to reduce meat and animal product consumption

Ben Stevenson Jacob R. Peacock

We developed a database of sources investigating interventions to reduce meat and edible animal product consumption, which we are now releasing as a resource to help advocates and researchers evaluate the evidence base.

Global Health & Development

Overview and funding priorities for reproductive health in East and Francophone West Africa

Greer Gosnell Ruby Emerson John Firth John Firth

Overview of reproductive health product access in Africa, focusing on regulatory harmonization, manufacturing, and product introduction priorities.

Global Health & Development

Data systems for malaria burden estimation: Challenges, initiatives, and opportunities

Jenny Kudymowa Carmen van Schoubroeck Aisling Leow Melanie Basnak

Landscape analysis of malaria burden data systems in low-income countries, focusing on routine data collection challenges and improvement initiatives.

Animal Welfare

Plant-Based Diet-Shift Initiative Case Studies: New York City

Neil Dullaghan

This case study presents a comprehensive analysis of New York City's multi-tiered nutritional policy interventions, which have demonstrably reduced municipal food-related greenhouse gas emissions by 27% through systematic procurement modifications.

Animal Welfare

Plant-Based Diet-Shift Initiative Case Studies: Coolfood

Neil Dullaghan

This systematic evaluation quantifies the effectiveness of Coolfood's institutional intervention model, which has achieved measurable reductions in food-related emissions across organizations serving 9 billion meals annually.

Animal Welfare

Plant-Based Diet-Shift Initiative Case Studies: Denmark’s Plant-Based Food Grant

Neil Dullaghan

This policy analysis examines Denmark's structural intervention in agricultural systems through targeted fiscal mechanisms supporting 71 plant-based initiatives across production, distribution, and consumption sectors.

Animal Welfare

Plant-Based Diet-Shift Initiative Case Studies: GoodDot Alternative Protein Company

Ben Stevenson

This market analysis evaluates GoodDot's operational framework in India's emerging alternative protein sector, documenting their methodological approach to product development, distribution logistics, and capital allocation optimization.

Animal Welfare

Plant-Based Diet-Shift Initiative Case Studies: German Retailer Transitions

Ben Stevenson

This case evaluation examines Lidl Germany's data-driven protein transition framework targeting a 20/80 plant/animal ratio by 2030, with potential to reduce GHG emissions by 450,000 tonnes and significantly decrease land use requirements.

Animal Welfare

Research Summary: Exploring Physiological Indicators of Farmed Insect Welfare

Elisa Autric Meghan Barrett

Summarizes research on physiological welfare indicators for farmed insects and priorities for making those measures useful and feasible.

Global Health & Development

Health Systems Strengthening

Jenny Kudymowa Ruby Emerson Tom Hird

This report reviews health systems strengthening as a philanthropic cause area, identifying promising LMIC interventions, case studies, and funding opportunities.

Animal Welfare

Forecasting Farmed Animal Numbers in 2033

Hannah Moulange Sagar Shah

Forecasts farmed animal numbers in 2033, projecting rapid growth driven by invertebrates and highlighting urgent questions about welfare and sentience.

Animal Welfare

EU Farmed Animal Welfare Policy: Strategic Assessment (2025)

Neil Dullaghan

Strategic assessment of EU farmed animal welfare policy after recent political shifts, identifying advocacy opportunities, timelines, and funding priorities.

Global Health & Development

US Foreign Aid Funding Pause: A Framework for Giving in Uncertain Times

Tom Vargas Aisling Leow

Framework for donors responding to US foreign aid cuts, weighing cause-specific urgency, funding gaps, and uncertainty after major program disruptions.

Global Health & Development

Promising Interventions in Maternal and Neonatal Health

Tom Vargas Greer Gosnell Aisling Leow

Scans maternal and neonatal health interventions in LMICs, identifying promising philanthropic opportunities across antenatal, intrapartum, and postpartum care.

Global Health & Development

Landscape of Malaria Bednet Programs

Aisling Leow James Hu Jamie Elsey Tom Hird

An in-depth analysis of malaria bednet programs across 14 countries uncovers critical shifts in funding patterns, distribution strategies, and technological innovations, while highlighting persistent challenges in achieving universal coverage.

Animal Welfare

Effects of Restrictive Animal Product Alternative Labeling Laws on Supply-chain Costs

Samara Mendez William McAuliffe

Finds state labeling restrictions for plant-based and cell-cultured foods are unlikely to impose steep supply-chain costs, though federal bans remain concerning.

Animal Welfare

Can Black Soldier Fly Larvae (BSFL) producers displace fishmeal?

Sagar Shah Michael St. Jules

Assesses whether black soldier fly larvae producers can displace fishmeal in aquafeed, finding current production costs likely remain too high.

Worldview Investigations

Strategic Directions for a Digital Consciousness Model

Derek Shiller Arvo Muñoz Morán Hayley Clatterbuck Bob Fischer David Moss Laura Muresianu

The Worldview Investigations Team is in the process of building a model to estimate the probabilities of consciousness in near-future AIs.

Animal Welfare

Insect farming: investment trends and projected production capacity

Sagar Shah

Analyzes investment trends in insect farming and projects future production capacity, highlighting lower-than-expected growth but large welfare stakes.

Global Health & Development

Hypertension in low- and middle-income countries

Jenny Kudymowa Aisling Leow Carmen van Schoubroeck Tom Hird

This report explores the burden, interventions, and potential for philanthropic funding related to hypertension—or high blood pressure—a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and other serious health issues.

Surveys & Data Analysis

Pulse: US attitudes and awareness regarding effective giving and philanthropic cause areas

Jamie Elsey David Moss

First wave of Pulse polling on US awareness and attitudes toward effective giving, philanthropic cause areas, and effective altruism.

Worldview Investigations

The Welfare of Digital Minds

Derek Shiller Bob Fischer Hayley Clatterbuck Arvo Muñoz Morán David Moss

The research agenda explores critical philosophical and empirical questions about the potential welfare and moral status of digital minds, focusing on understanding when and how artificial intelligence systems might deserve ethical consideration.

Worldview Investigations

Resource Allocation: A Research Agenda

Arvo Muñoz Morán Hayley Clatterbuck Derek Shiller Bob Fischer David Moss

Research agenda on altruistic resource allocation, proposing future work on cause prioritization, worldview uncertainty, and better funding decisions.

Animal Welfare

2024 Animal Advocacy Strategy Forum: Event summary and survey results

Elisa Autric William McAuliffe

Summarizes the 2024 Animal Advocacy Strategy Forum, including movement challenges, participant survey results, and projects launched after the event.

Global Health & Development

Interventions to improve the effectiveness of government procurement

Carmen van Schoubroeck Aisling Leow Jenny Kudymowa Melanie Basnak

Analyzes inefficiencies in government procurement, their global scale, and possible interventions to improve transparency, competition, and value for money.

Global Health & Development

Impact ranking database: A feasibility study for Charity Navigator

Carmen van Schoubroeck Jamie Elsey Tom Hird

This report assesses whether Charity Navigator could build an impact-ranking database, focusing on cost-effectiveness, cause-area definitions, and implementation barriers.

Worldview Investigations

Valuing Impacts Across Species: A Research Agenda

Bob Fischer Hayley Clatterbuck Arvo Muñoz Morán David Moss Derek Shiller

Research agenda on valuing impacts across species, outlining questions needed to compare human and nonhuman welfare on a common scale.

Animal Welfare

Strategies for helping farmed shrimp

Hannah Moulange Elisa Autric Daniela R. Waldhorn William McAuliffe Urja Thakrar

Practical guide for animal advocacy groups on farmed shrimp welfare, drawing on prior research about industry scale, mortality, and major welfare threats.

Animal Welfare

Abundance Estimates of Three Wild Populations

William McAuliffe Kim Cuddington

Compares methods for handling uncertainty in abundance estimates for urban pigeons, urban rats, and birds killed in window collisions.

Surveys & Data Analysis

British public perception of existential risks

David Moss Jamie Elsey

UK survey on perceived extinction risks finds climate change, nuclear weapons, and pandemics top public concern, with AI risk mentioned by about 9%.

Worldview Investigations

Bargaining among worldviews

Derek Shiller Bob Fischer Arvo Muñoz Morán Hayley Clatterbuck

Explores how worldviews might bargain over philanthropic resources and why final allocations may depart from proportional worldview shares.

Global Health & Development

Substandard and falsified antimalarials in sub-Saharan Africa: Health burden and potential interventions

Aisling Leow Jenny Kudymowa Tom Hird

Estimates the burden of substandard and falsified antimalarials in sub-Saharan Africa and assesses possible impacts on malaria deaths and resistance.

Worldview Investigations

Risk Alignment in Agentic AI Systems

Hayley Clatterbuck Arvo Muñoz Morán

Discusses risk attitudes for agentic AI systems and how alignment should account for users, developers, society, and AI decision-making under uncertainty.

Global Health & Development

Fungal diseases: Health burden, neglectedness, and potential interventions

Jenny Kudymowa James Hu Tom Hird

Estimates the burden and neglectedness of serious fungal diseases, highlighting high uncertainty, likely underestimation, and possible intervention areas.

Worldview Investigations

Taking Uncertainty Seriously (or, Why Tools Matter)

Bob Fischer Hayley Clatterbuck Arvo Muñoz Morán

This post is the seventh installment in the Worldview Investigation Team’s Charitable Resource Allocation Frameworks and Tools (CRAFT) Sequence. Here, the researchers explain how the Moral Parliament tool can help address uncertainty.

Worldview Investigations

Rethink Priorities’ Moral Parliament Tool

Derek Shiller Arvo Muñoz Morán Bob Fischer Hayley Clatterbuck

Interactive tool for modeling philanthropic allocations under moral uncertainty, letting users compare worldview credences and metanormative decision methods.

Worldview Investigations

An Epistemic Defense of Rounding Down

Hayley Clatterbuck

This post is the fifth installment in the Worldview Investigation Team’s Charitable Resource Allocation Frameworks and Tools (CRAFT) Sequence. Here, the team examines one of the decision theories included in the Giving Portfolio Builder Tool.

Global Health & Development

Climate research in effective altruism

Greer Gosnell

Reviews climate research within effective altruism, comparing major organizations' approaches and arguing for more attention to climate impacts on health.

Worldview Investigations

Difference-Making Risk Aversion: An Exploration

Hayley Clatterbuck

This post is the fourth installment in the Worldview Investigation Team’s Charitable Resource Allocation Frameworks and Tools (CRAFT) Sequence. Here, the team examines one of the decision theories included in the Giving Portfolio Builder Tool.

Worldview Investigations

Exploring Key Cases with the Portfolio Builder

Hayley Clatterbuck Arvo Muñoz Morán

This post is the third installment in the Worldview Investigation Team’s Charitable Resource Allocation Frameworks and Tools (CRAFT) Sequence. Here, the team expands on a previous post introducing the Giving Portfolio Builder Tool.

Worldview Investigations

Rethink Priorities’ Portfolio Builder Tool

Arvo Muñoz Morán Hayley Clatterbuck Bob Fischer Derek Shiller

Interactive tool for optimizing philanthropic portfolios across cause areas using cost-effectiveness estimates, cost curves, and decision-theoretic assumptions.

Worldview Investigations

An Introduction to the CRAFT Sequence

Hayley Clatterbuck Arvo Muñoz Morán Derek Shiller

This post is the first installment in the Worldview Investigation Team’s Charitable Resource Allocation Frameworks and Tools (CRAFT) Sequence. Through this project, the Team developed two tools to help donors work through uncertainties: a giving portfolio builder and a moral parliament simulation.

Animal Welfare

Quantifying and prioritizing shrimp welfare threats

Hannah Moulange William McAuliffe

Quantifies 18 welfare threats to farmed shrimp, estimating prevalence, intensity, and duration of pain to help prioritize welfare interventions.

Animal Welfare

Three preconditions for helping wild animals at scale

William McAuliffe

Outlines three preconditions for helping wild animals at scale: valid welfare measurement, scalable interventions, and social legitimacy.

Animal Welfare

A landscape analysis of wild animal welfare

Holly Elmore William McAuliffe

This report provides an overview of five organizations that dedicate substantial effort to improving wild animal welfare. The researchers identify commonalities in their approaches, as well as gaps that other organizations could fill.

Animal Welfare

Shallow overview of institutional plant-based meal campaigns in the US and Western Europe

Neil Dullaghan

This Rethink Priorities report provides a shallow overview of the potential for impactful opportunities from institutional plant-based meal campaigns in the US, France, Germany, UK, Spain, and Italy based on reviewing existing research and speaking with organizations conducting such campaigns.

Global Health & Development

Impact of mosquito nets on fisheries

Aisling Leow Tom Hird

Reviews evidence on mosquito net fishing, finding large uncertainty about prevalence, ecosystem harms, benefits, and effects on fisheries.

Animal Welfare

Research summary: The evolution of nociception in arthropods

Abraham Rowe

This post summarizes research into the Chinese mantis, focusing on the genes associated with nociception (the ability to perceive noxious stimuli). This type of research may help to improve the conditions on farms to better meet the needs of insects.

Animal Welfare

Prospective cost-effectiveness of farmed fish stunning corporate commitments in Europe

Sagar Shah

Researcher Sagar Shah estimated how cost effective farmed fish slaughter commitments from retailers might be in Europe. His research focused on France, Italy, and Spain because of the large scale of consumption of farmed fish species that don’t benefit from stunning in these countries.

Animal Welfare

Pre-slaughter mortality of farmed shrimp

Hannah Moulange William McAuliffe

This is the third report in Rethink Priorities’ Shrimp Welfare Sequence, a series that addresses whether and how to best protect the welfare of shrimp. After outlining the welfare threats farmed shrimp may face, this report investigates the effect of these welfare threats on pre-slaughter mortality.

Global Health & Development

Research in brief: Clean energy price trajectories

Greer Gosnell Ruby Emerson

This post summarizes research that Rethink conducted in 2022 on the trajectory of the prices of clean energy over the next 25-100 years. The researchers also looked into whether resource or scientific constraints may inhibit clean energy innovation and scaling.

Global Health & Development

Research in brief: Carbon capture landscape and challenges

Greer Gosnell Ruby Emerson

This post summarizes research that Rethink conducted in 2022 on the neglectedness of carbon capture technologies over a five- to ten-year horizon, as well as bottlenecks associated with the field and tractable interventions to overcome them.

Global Health & Development

Research in brief: Climate philanthropy landscape

Greer Gosnell Bruce Tsai

This post summarizes research that Rethink conducted in December 2021 into the state of climate philanthropy—including the amount that has been committed, how it is allocated, and the identity of major funders—as well as a comparison with public and private climate funding.

Animal Welfare

Research summary: farmed cricket welfare

Abraham Rowe

This post is a short summary of research on farmed cricket welfare considerations funded by Rethink Priorities as part of our research agenda on understanding the welfare of insects on farms. The paper includes recommendations.

Global Health & Development

Research in Brief: Scientific capacity in sub-Saharan Africa

Jenny Kudymowa Bruce Tsai

This post summarizes research that Rethink conducted in 2022 for into scientific capacity in sub-Saharan Africa. The main aim of this project was to understand whether it could be a high-impact grantmaking area for Open Philanthropy.

Global Health & Development

Research in Brief: The long-term income effects of childhood malaria cases

Carmen van Schoubroeck

This research updated GiveWell’s previous literature review on the long-term income effects of childhood malaria to determine whether the assumption that income in adulthood decreases by 1% per childhood malaria case should be adjusted and whether any further evidence should be considered.

Global Health & Development

Research in Brief: Larval source management

Aisling Leow Melanie Basnak Bruce Tsai

This report is a broad overview of larval source management, including evidence for effectiveness, room for more funding, and coverage by existing implementers.

Global Health & Development

Research in Brief: Vitamin A usage in different countries

Aisling Leow Melanie Basnak Tom Hird

This summary aims to understand whether and how the “double treatment” parameter in GiveWell’s model on vitamin A supplementation should be updated, and to produce estimates for additional countries of interest.

Global Health & Development

Research in Brief: Evidence review of family planning interventions

Carmen van Schoubroeck Greer Gosnell James Hu Melanie Basnak

Brief review of evidence on family planning and reproductive health interventions in LMICs, prepared for funders and implementers assessing grantmaking options.

Animal Welfare

Research summary: Farmed yellow mealworm welfare

Abraham Rowe

This post is a short summary of research on yellow mealworm welfare that was funded by Rethink Priorities. The full paper on this research was published in a peer-reviewed, open access journal.

Global Health & Development

Priority review vouchers for tropical diseases: Impact, distribution, effectiveness, and potential improvements

Greer Gosnell James Hu Erin Braid

This report examines the Priority Review Vouchers (PRV) that the US government has issued under its Tropical Disease PRV Program, which provides financial incentives for research and development targeting neglected tropical diseases.

Animal Welfare

The impact of Corporate Social Responsibility on animal welfare standards: Evidence from the cage-free egg industry

Samara Mendez Jacob R. Peacock

Study of 44 countries finds corporate cage-free egg commitments appear to increase cage-free hen housing, though results are based on observational evidence.

Animal Welfare

Welfare considerations for farmed shrimp

Hannah Moulange William McAuliffe Daniela R. Waldhorn

This is the second report in Rethink Priorities’ Shrimp Welfare Sequence. The first report estimated the scale of shrimp farming. This report examines the welfare threats that these individuals face.

Animal Welfare

Risk Aversion in Wild Animal Welfare

William McAuliffe

Argues that risk aversion can support investment in wild animal welfare despite deep uncertainty about interventions, sentience, and aggregate effects.

Global Health & Development

Vaccine delivery: Timelines and drivers of delay in low- and middle-income countries

Greer Gosnell Erin Braid Melanie Basnak

Reviews delays in vaccine introduction in LMICs, finding Gavi reduced affordability barriers while evidence, supply, demand forecasting, and capacity still matter.

Animal Welfare

Animal Advocacy Strategy Forum 2023 summary

Neil Dullaghan

This report summarizes results from Rethink Priorities’ second annual gathering of animal advocates (held in July 2023). Highlights include advocates’ perceptions about how the field should allocate resources.

Worldview Investigations

How Rethink Priorities is Addressing Risk and Uncertainty

Marcus A. Davis Peter Wildeford

This is the tenth post in the Worldview Investigations Team’s sequence of posts—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation (CURVE). In this post, Rethink Priorities’ Co-CEOs explain how the organization is addressing risk and uncertainty.

Surveys & Data Analysis

Incorporating and visualizing uncertainty in cost effectiveness analyses: A walkthrough using GiveWell’s estimates for StrongMinds

Jamie Elsey David Moss

This post introduces an app—Distributr—developed by Rethink Priorities’ Jamie Elsey to better incorporate and visualize uncertainty in cost-effectiveness estimates. As a case study, the post discusses GiveWell’s assessment of Happier Lives Institute’s cost-effectiveness analyses for StrongMinds.

Worldview Investigations

Rethink Priorities’ Cross-Cause Cost-Effectiveness Model

This is the ninth post in the Worldview Investigations Team’s sequence of posts—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation (CURVE). This post introduces Rethink Priorities’ cross-cause cost-effectiveness model.

Global Health & Development

A review of GiveWell’s discount rate

Jenny Kudymowa James Hu Melanie Basnak Tom Hird

The primary focus of this report is to review GiveWell’s current formulation of its discount rate by recommending improvements and reinforcing justifications for areas that do not require improvement.

Worldview Investigations

Is x-risk cost-effective if we only count a few generations?

Laura Muresianu

This is the eighth post in the Worldview Investigations Team’s sequence of posts—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation (CURVE). This post examines whether x-risk the most cost-effective issue to focus on if we count only the next few generations.

Global Health & Development

Road safety: Landscape of the problem and routes to effective policy advocacy

Aisling Leow Erin Braid Carmen van Schoubroeck Melanie Basnak

Landscape report on road safety in LMICs, examining major risk factors, policy gaps, and how advocacy may have contributed to reforms in China and Vietnam.

Worldview Investigations

Uncertainty over time and Bayesian updating

David Rhys Bernard

This is the seventh post in the Worldview Investigations Team’s sequence of posts—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation (CURVE). This post examines how uncertainty increases over time and estimates a model of how a Bayesian would interpret increasingly uncertain forecasts.

Worldview Investigations

Charting the precipice

Bob Fischer Hayley Clatterbuck

This is the sixth post in the Worldview Investigations Team’s sequence of posts—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation (CURVE). This report considers a time of perils-based case for prioritizing existential risk mitigation.

Worldview Investigations

How bad would human extinction be?

Arvo Muñoz Morán

This is the fifth post in the Worldview Investigations Team’s sequence of posts—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation (CURVE). This report builds on the model originally introduced by Toby Ord on how to estimate the value of existential risk mitigation.

Worldview Investigations

How can risk aversion affect your cause prioritization?

Laura Muresianu

Explains how different forms of risk aversion can change cause prioritization compared with simple expected value maximization.

Animal Welfare

Prioritizing animals of uncertain sentience

Hayley Clatterbuck

This is the third post in the CURVE—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation—series. In this post, Hayley Clatterbuck examines the risks and rewards of prioritizing animals of uncertain sentience (such as shrimps).

Worldview Investigations

If contractualism, then AMF

Bob Fischer Hayley Clatterbuck

This is the second post in the CURVE—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation—series. In this post, the researchers discuss the implications of contractualism for cause prioritization.

Worldview Investigations

Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation

Bob Fischer Hayley Clatterbuck

We want to help others as much as we can, but knowing how to do that is complex. The Worldview Investigations Team explores this topic in their new sequence of posts—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation (CURVE).

Global Health & Development

An overview of market shaping in global health: Landscape, new developments, and gaps

Jenny Kudymowa James Hu Melanie Basnak

This report provides an overview of how market shaping is typically used in global health, its recent track record, and ongoing gaps in its implementation. The researchers also spotlight two specific market shaping approaches: pooled procurement and subscription models.

Surveys & Data Analysis

Influences on individuals adopting vegetarian and vegan diets

Jamie Elsey David Moss

Survey analysis of influences on vegetarian and vegan diet adoption, highlighting personal interactions, animal contact, media, and animal welfare concerns.

Animal Welfare

EU farmed fish policy reform roadmap brief

Neil Dullaghan

This report builds a strategy based on the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of the animal advocacy movement in the European Union (EU) farmed fish policy space.

Animal Welfare

“Dimensions of Pain” workshop: Summary and updated conclusions

William McAuliffe Adam Shriver

Summarizes a workshop on comparing animal pain severity and duration, including evidence gaps and possible behavioral research strategies.

Animal Welfare

Price-, taste-, and convenience-competitive plant-based meat would not currently replace meat

Jacob R. Peacock

Argues that price-, taste-, and convenience-competitive plant-based meats would not by themselves replace most animal-based meat consumption.

Surveys & Data Analysis

Why some people disagree with the CAIS statement on AI

David Moss Willem Sleegers

Qualitative analysis of why some US respondents disagreed with the CAIS AI extinction-risk statement, including competing priorities and skepticism about extinction.

Volunteering for infection: Participant perspectives on a Hepatitis C virus controlled human infection model

Jamie Elsey

This post is a linkpost from the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases. The report was a collaboration between 1Day Sooner and Rethink Priorities.

Animal Welfare

Shrimp: The animals most commonly used and killed for food production

Daniela R. Waldhorn Elisa Autric

Decapod crustaceans or, for short, decapods (e.g., crabs, shrimp, or crayfish) represent a major food source for humans across the globe. If these animals are sentient, the growing decapod production industry likely poses serious welfare concerns for these animals.

Global Catastrophic Risks

AI Safety Bounties

Patrick Levermore

AI safety bounties: programs where members of the public or approved security researchers receive rewards for identifying issues within powerful ML systems (analogous to bug bounties in cybersecurity).

Animal Welfare

2022 Effective Animal Advocacy Forum Survey: Results and analysis

Laura Muresianu

This report analyzes the results of a survey of attendees at the Effective Animal Advocacy (EAA) Coordination Forum held in September 2022. The attendees represented approximately 20 key groups in the animal advocacy space.

Global Health & Development

An overview of WHO Prequalification: Process, usage, and potential improvements

Aisling Leow James Hu Tom Hird

The primary focus of the report is to provide a review of World Health Organization Prequalification (WHO-PQ). The researchers focused mostly on how it works and how it’s funded, as well as how it came about and how it could be improved for a greater global health impact.

Surveys & Data Analysis

US public perception of CAIS statement and the risk of extinction

Jamie Elsey David Moss

Poll of US adults on the CAIS AI-risk statement, measuring agreement, support, worry about AI, and perceived extinction risk by 2100.

Animal Welfare

Historical farmed animal welfare ballot initiatives

Laura Muresianu

This report estimates the impact and cost-effectiveness of four historical U.S. ballot initiatives that either restricted the use of common animal confinement methods, set minimum per-animal space requirements, and/or mandated cage-free systems for egg-laying hens.

Global Health & Development

Historical Global Health R&D “hits”: Development, main sources of funding, and impact

Erin Braid Melanie Basnak Bruce Tsai

Reconstructs five global health R&D successes, estimating lives saved and tracing the roles of industry, academia, philanthropy, and public funding.

Global Health & Development

Family Empowerment Media: track record, cost-effectiveness, and main uncertainties

Greer Gosnell Melanie Basnak

This commissioned report assesses the cost-effectiveness of nonprofit Family Empowerment Media (FEM) on behalf of an anonymous donor.

Global Health & Development

An overview of the WHO Essential Medicines List: procedures, usage, and potential improvements

Jenny Kudymowa James Hu Tom Hird

The primary focus of this report is to provide a review of the World Health Organization’s Essential Medicines List (EML). The researchers explain how the EML is developed and used, and how it could be improved for a greater global health impact.

Animal Welfare

Drawing attention to invasive Lymantria dispar dispar spongy moth outbreaks as an important, neglected issue in wild animal welfare

Hannah Moulange Meghan Barrett

The massive scale of invasive (e.g., non-native) Lymantria dispar dispar (spongy moth) outbreaks represents an unappreciated wild animal welfare issue.

Surveys & Data Analysis

US public opinion of AI policy and risk

Jamie Elsey David Moss

This nationally-representative survey of U.S. public opinions on AI aimed to replicate and extend other recent polls. The findings suggest that people are cautious about AI and favor federal regulation though they perceive other risks (e.g. nuclear war) as more likely to cause human extinction.

Global Catastrophic Risks

Air Safety to Combat Global Catastrophic Biorisks [REVISED]

Jam Kraprayoon

Associate Researcher Jam Kraprayoon and colleagues from 1Day Sooner published a revised report on how improving indoor air quality can address global catastrophic risk from pandemics.

Optimizing rabies vaccination of dogs in India

Kim Cuddington William McAuliffe

This is a linkpost for a preprint paper submitted for peer review. The report explains how vaccine baits can be used to reduce the costs of dog vaccination campaigns, which are the key to controlling rabies amongst humans.

Global Health & Development

Better weather forecasting. Better weather forecasting: Agricultural and non-agricultural benefits in low- and lower-middle-income countries

Aisling Leow Jenny Kudymowa James Hu Tom Hird Bruce Tsai

This report is a “shallow” investigation commissioned by Open Philanthropy. This primary focus of the report is to assess weather forecasting as a potential agricultural intervention in low- and lower-middle income countries and to examine the cost-effectiveness of different interventions.

Animal Welfare

Paths to reducing rodenticide use in the U.S.

Hannah Moulange William McAuliffe

This post is the third installment in the Rodenticide Reduction sequence. This report describes and ranks interventions to reduce rodenticide use in the U.S. according to their expected impact, neglectedness, and tractability.

Global Catastrophic Risks

Prospects for AI safety agreements between countries

Oliver Guest

In this report, Associate Researcher Oliver Guest investigates the idea of bringing about international agreements to coordinate on safe AI development (“international safety agreements”), evaluates the tractability of these interventions, and suggests the best means of carrying them out.

Animal Welfare

Inconsistent evidence for price substitution between butter and margarine: a shallow review

Samara Mendez Ben Stevenson Jacob R. Peacock

While decreasing the prices of plant-based substitutes is a prominent animal welfare strategy, it's possible this approach could increase animal consumption. In a review of 19 studies, Samara Mendez et al. observed wide variation in the relationship between butter and margarine prices and demand.

Animal Welfare

Eradicating rodenticides from U.S. pest management is less practical than we thought

Hannah Moulange William McAuliffe

This post is the second installment in the Rodenticide Reduction sequence. This report explores the reasons why rodenticides are used, under what circumstances they could be replaced, and whether they are replaceable with currently available alternatives.

Global Catastrophic Risks

Survey on intermediate goals in AI governance

Michael Aird Max Räuker

As one effort to increase strategic clarity, the AI Governance and Strategy team sent a survey to 229 people they had reason to believe are knowledgeable about longtermist AI governance.

Surveys & Data Analysis

FTX Community Response Survey Results

Willem Sleegers David Moss

In December, Rethink Priorities’ Survey team worked with the Center for Effective Altruism (CEA) to rapidly add a section to the 2022 EA Survey to assess reactions to the crisis and to responses by those in the community.

Global Health & Development

Exposure to Lead Paint in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Jenny Kudymowa Carmen van Schoubroeck Tom Hird

This report is a “shallow” investigation commissioned by GiveWell. The primary focus of the report is to provide an overview of what is currently known about the exposure to lead paints in low- and middle-income countries.

Animal Welfare

How meat-free meal selection varies with menu options: an exploration

Sagar Shah Jacob R. Peacock

Reanalysis of menu choice data finds people selected more meat-free meals when menus had more meat-free options and fewer fish or poultry dishes.

Worldview Investigations

If Adult Insects Matter, How Much Do Juveniles Matter?

Emily Sandall Bob Fischer

Examines how insect life stage may affect sentience and welfare range estimates, arguing juvenile insects likely matter less than adults but not vastly less.

Global Catastrophic Risks

Does the US public support ultraviolet germicidal irradiation technology for reducing risks from pathogens?

Jam Kraprayoon

Surveys US attitudes toward germicidal UV technologies for pathogen control, finding low awareness but broadly positive support after explanation.

Worldview Investigations

Rethink Priorities’ Welfare Range Estimates

Bob Fischer

Presents welfare range estimates for 11 farmed species, offering provisional comparisons of possible pleasure and pain intensities across animals.

Global Health & Development

Livelihood interventions: overview, evaluation, and cost-effectiveness

Ruby Emerson Greer Gosnell James Hu Melanie Basnak

Evaluates livelihood interventions in sub-Saharan Africa, focusing on agriculture, vocational training, and entrepreneurship as ways to improve incomes.

Worldview Investigations

Don’t Balk at Animal-friendly Results

Bob Fischer

Argues that apparently animal-friendly conclusions from the Moral Weight Project are not by themselves reason to reject its hedonist assumptions.

Global Catastrophic Risks

Air Safety to Combat Global Catastrophic Biorisks

Jam Kraprayoon

Assesses indoor air quality interventions as biodefense tools, arguing ventilation, filtration, and UVGI could substantially reduce pandemic transmission.

Global Catastrophic Risks

Conclusion and Bibliography for “Understanding the diffusion of large language models”

Ben Cottier

Concludes a sequence on large language model diffusion, summarizing lessons from GPT-3-like case studies and implications for transformative AI risk.

Global Catastrophic Risks

Questions for further investigation of AI diffusion

Ben Cottier

This is the eighth post in the “Understanding the diffusion of large language models” sequence. In this post, Ben Cottier lists questions about AI diffusion that he thinks would be worthy of more research at the time of writing.

Global Health & Development

Implications of large language model diffusion for AI governance. ben

Ben Cottier

This is the seventh post in the “Understanding the diffusion of large language models” sequence. While the sequence is primarily descriptive, this post explores how to beneficially shape AI diffusion, and what the project’s findings mean for the governance of transformative AI (TAI).

Global Catastrophic Risks

Publication decisions for large language models, and their impacts

Ben Cottier

Analyzes how publication choices for GPT-3-like models affect diffusion, research norms, replication, and future language model development.

Global Catastrophic Risks

Drivers of large language model diffusion: incremental research, publicity, and cascades

Ben Cottier

This is the fifth post in the “Understanding the diffusion of large language models” sequence. This piece describes the most important factors for GPT-3-like model diffusion.

Global Catastrophic Risks

The replication and emulation of GPT-3

Ben Cottier

Examines attempts to replicate and emulate GPT-3, estimating the resources required and how quickly GPT-3-like capabilities diffused.

Global Catastrophic Risks

GPT-3-like models are now much easier to access and deploy than to develop

Ben Cottier

This is the third post in the “Understanding the diffusion of large language models” sequence. This piece describes some GPT-3-like models that are widely available for download and what resources are required to actually use them.

Global Catastrophic Risks

Background for “Understanding the diffusion of large language models”

Ben Cottier

This is the second post in the “Understanding the diffusion of large language models” sequence. This piece provides background, including definitions of relevant terms, the inputs to AI development, the relevance of AI diffusion, and other information to contextualize the remainder of the sequence.

Global Catastrophic Risks

Understanding the diffusion of large language models: summary

Ben Cottier

Five-minute summary of case studies on GPT-3-like model diffusion, covering replication, open sourcing, compute costs, and implications for AI risk.

Global Health & Development

The REDD+ framework for reducing deforestation and mitigating climate change: overview, evaluation, and cost-effectiveness

Greer Gosnell Ruby Emerson James Hu Tom Hird Melanie Basnak

The first of a two-part series on anti-deforestation initiatives, this report examines the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of the REDD+ framework for reducing forest loss and degradation and for abating CO2 emissions that contribute to climate change.

Worldview Investigations

Octopuses (Probably) Don’t Have Nine Minds

Joe Gottlieb

Argues that evidence does not currently support treating octopuses, chickens, or split-brain humans as housing multiple morally relevant subjects.

Worldview Investigations

Do Brains Contain Many Conscious Subsystems? If So, Should We Act Differently?

Adam Shriver Michael St. Jules

Evaluates the conscious subsystems hypothesis and argues it does not clearly shift neartermist priorities from animals to humans.

Animal Welfare

Welfare Considerations for Farmed Black Soldier Flies (Hermetia illucens)

Meghan Barrett

Reviews welfare concerns for farmed black soldier flies, covering rearing conditions, nutrition, injury, disease, and slaughter in a growing industry.

Worldview Investigations

Why Neuron Counts Shouldn’t Be Used as Proxies for Moral Weight

Adam Shriver

Challenges the use of neuron counts as proxies for animals' moral weight, arguing the empirical and theoretical links are too weak.

Animal Welfare

The Determinants of Adopting International Voluntary Certification Schemes for Farmed Fish and Shrimp in China and Thailand

Jojo Lee

Reviews why fish and shrimp farmers in China and Thailand adopt international certification schemes, and what limited uptake implies for advocacy.

Worldview Investigations

Theories of Welfare and Welfare Range Estimates

Bob Fischer

Assesses how theories of welfare affect welfare range estimates, arguing non-hedonist views may change cross-species estimates only modestly.

Animal Welfare

Does the US public support radical action against factory farming in the name of animal welfare?

Neil Dullaghan

A preregistered survey finds US support for banning slaughterhouses is much lower when respondents see arguments and explain their reasoning.

Worldview Investigations

The Welfare Range Table

Bob Fischer

Explains Rethink Priorities' welfare range table for 11 farmed species, including empirical proxies and uncertainty across vertebrates and invertebrates.

Global Health & Development

How effective are prizes at spurring innovation?

Jenny Kudymowa Tom Hird Bruce Tsai

This review finds limited causal evidence that inducement prizes spur innovation, stronger evidence for recognition prizes, and uncertainty about prize design.

Worldview Investigations

An Introduction to the Moral Weight Project

Bob Fischer

Introduces the Moral Weight Project's framework for comparing welfare improvements across species using welfare ranges and lifespan.

Animal Welfare

Using artificial intelligence (machine vision) to increase the effectiveness of human-wildlife conflict mitigations could benefit WAW

This report explores whether AI-assisted human-wildlife conflict mitigation could reduce harms such as bat collisions or crop-raiding animal culls.

Animal Welfare

Does the trajectory of pain matter?

William McAuliffe Adam Shriver

This report is a postscript to "The relative Importance of the severity and duration of pain,” and addresses whether the order of negative and positive experiences matter. For example, is pain worse if it occurs at the end of an individual’s life?

Animal Welfare

The relative importance of the severity and duration of pain

Adam Shriver William McAuliffe

This report examines how to weigh pain severity against duration in cause prioritization, reviewing moral arguments and limited empirical evidence.

Research summary: brain cell counts in Black Soldier Flies (Hermetia illucens; Diptera: Stratiomyidae)

Meghan Barrett

Summarizes research measuring brain cell counts in black soldier flies across life stages to inform sentience and welfare-range estimates.

Animal Welfare

Reducing aquatic noise as a wild animal welfare intervention

Saulius Simcikas

Explores whether reducing aquatic noise could improve wild animal welfare, concluding current evidence suggests uncertain and likely limited cost-effectiveness.

Surveys & Data Analysis

How many people have heard of effective altruism?

David Moss Jamie Elsey

A representative US survey estimates awareness of effective altruism at 6.7% under a permissive standard and 2.6% under a stricter standard.

Global Catastrophic Risks

My thoughts on nanotechnology strategy research as an EA cause area

Ben Snodin

The author argues advanced nanotechnology could affect existential risk and deserves more strategy research despite highly uncertain timelines and implications.

Animal Welfare

The rodent birth control landscape

Holly Elmore

Surveys rodent pest control and birth control options, focusing on reducing harms from rodenticides and identifying more humane population management.

Animal Welfare

Forecasts estimate limited cultured meat production through 2050

Neil Dullaghan

Reports forecaster estimates for cultured meat production through 2050, finding low expected volumes despite possible future breakthroughs.

Global Catastrophic Risks

Why short-range forecasting can be useful for longtermism

Linchuan Zhang

This post argues short-range forecasting can help longtermist work by giving decision-makers earlier, better signals during emerging AI or bio risks.

Global Catastrophic Risks

Potentially great ways forecasting can improve the longterm future

Linchuan Zhang

This post outlines ways forecasting could aid longtermism, including research support, grantmaking evaluation, outreach, talent development, and long-range forecasting.

Animal Welfare

Effectiveness of a theory-informed documentary to reduce consumption of meat and animal products: three randomized controlled experiments

Jacob R. Peacock

Three randomized studies found an informational documentary increased intentions to reduce animal-product consumption but did not measurably change behavior.

Animal Welfare

Monitoring wild animal welfare via vocalizations

Hannah Moulange Holly Elmore

This article examines whether animal vocalizations and remote acoustic monitoring could provide non-invasive metrics for studying wild animal welfare.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2020: Donation Data

David Reinstein

This EA Survey analysis examines donation behavior, earning-to-give, cause choices, income links, and how donation plans compare with actual giving.

Worldview Investigations

Issues with futarchy

Lizka V

Reviews potential problems with futarchy and argues it should not be a major focus for the effective altruism community.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2020: Geography

Jacob Schmiess Jacob Schmiess

The 2020 EA Survey finds most respondents still live in five wealthy Western countries, though the share outside those countries has grown since 2018.

Worldview Investigations

Key characteristics for evaluating future global governance institutions

Juan Gil

This post outlines a framework of five characteristics that seem most relevant for longtermists to consider when evaluating the impact of a “global agent” (as defined below) like a world government or a strong global governance institution.

Surveys & Data Analysis

How does forecast quantity impact forecast quality on Metaculus?

Charles Dillon

This post analyzes Metaculus data to see how the number of predictors relates to aggregate forecast accuracy and when more forecasters improve quality.

Animal Welfare

Cultured meat: a comparison of techno-economic analyses

Neil Dullaghan Linchuan Zhang

Compares techno-economic analyses of cultured meat and argues major scientific, engineering, and supply-chain breakthroughs are needed for scale.

Surveys & Data Analysis

An analysis of Metaculus predictions of future EA resources, 2025 and 2030

Charles Dillon

6 weeks ago I shared a Metaculus question series I had authored, focused mainly on predicting grants by Open Philanthropy in 2025 and 2030, with some other questions on new large EA-aligned donors also included. This post contains a summary of the predictions on these questions so far.

Animal Welfare

Cultured meat predictions were overly optimistic

Neil Dullaghan

This post reviews resolved cultured meat timeline predictions and finds a pattern of overconfidence, suggesting skepticism toward near-term market claims.

Worldview Investigations

Disentangling “improving institutional decision-making”

Lizka V

This post discusses what the cause area of “Improving institutional decision-making” (IIDM) currently encompasses, and presents some frameworks for thinking about IIDM’s pathways to impact and what (I think) IIDM should entail.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2020: Engagement

David Moss

The 2020 EA Survey finds engagement varies by cohort, age, location, and demographics, with earlier cohorts generally reporting higher engagement.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2020: Community Information

David Moss

EA Survey 2020 analysis of factors that helped or harmed respondents' involvement and perceived ability to have a positive impact.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2020: Cause Prioritization

David Moss

The 2020 EA Survey finds global poverty remains the top-rated cause overall, while support for longtermist and meta causes rises with engagement.

Global Health & Development

Towards a longtermist framework for evaluating democracy-related interventions

Tom Barnes Marie Davidsen Buhl

Develops a longtermist framework for evaluating democracy-related interventions by separating features of liberal democracy and possible future impacts.

Surveys & Data Analysis

An examination of Metaculus’ resolved AI predictions and their implications for AI timelines

Charles Dillon

This analysis of resolved Metaculus AI questions finds weak, inconclusive evidence that the community expected more AI progress than occurred.

Surveys & Data Analysis

Types of specification problems in forecasting

Juan Gil

This post categorizes forecasting question specification problems, such as ambiguity and misaligned criteria, and suggests ways to reduce them.

Global Health & Development

Intervention report: agricultural land redistribution

David Rhys Bernard Jason Schukraft

This report argues agricultural land redistribution is unlikely to be a cost-effective poverty intervention today because successful versions seem intractable.

Animal Welfare

Rethink Priorities poll: US attitudes towards insects

Neil Dullaghan David Moss Peter Wildeford

A US poll finds many people are unsure about insect farming, oppose banning insect feed for farmed animals, and often think insects can feel pain.

Global Catastrophic Risks

Announcing the Nuclear Risk Forecasting Tournament

Michael Aird

Announces a Metaculus forecasting tournament on nuclear risk intended to inform funding, policy, research, and career decisions.

Global Health & Development

Intervention report: charter cities

David Rhys Bernard Jason Schukraft

This report argues charter cities are unlikely to reduce poverty cost-effectively, though cheaper special reform zones may capture similar indirect benefits.

Global Catastrophic Risks

Humanities research ideas for longtermists

Lizka V

This post lists 10 longtermism-relevant project ideas for people with humanities interests or backgrounds. Most of these ideas are for research projects, but some are for summaries, new outreach content, etc.

Global Health & Development

Global lead exposure report

David Rhys Bernard Jason Schukraft

This report argues lead exposure is a major neglected global health burden, especially in LMICs, and maps key exposure sources and interventions.

Surveys & Data Analysis

Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience

Charles Dillon

This analysis uses PredictionBook and Metaculus data to study forecasting accuracy by time horizon and experience, finding overconfidence as a common issue.

Surveys & Data Analysis

Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience

This analysis uses PredictionBook and Metaculus data to study forecasting accuracy by time horizon and experience, finding overconfidence as a common issue.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2020: How People Get Involved in EA

David Moss

The 2020 EA Survey finds personal contacts and 80,000 Hours are major entry points to EA, with podcasts increasingly important for newer respondents.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA groups survey 2020

David Moss

The 2020 EA Groups Survey profiles 222 groups across 50 countries, covering group growth, participation, organizer time, and support needs.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2020: Demographics

David Moss

The composition of the EA community remains similar to last year, in terms of age (82% 34 or younger), race (76% white) and gender (71% male). The median age when EAs reported getting involved in the community was 24. More than two thirds (69%) of our sample were non-students and

Animal Welfare

Silk production: global scale and animal welfare issues

Abraham Rowe

This report estimates hundreds of billions of silkworms are killed for silk each year and assesses welfare issues and possible advocacy interventions.

Animal Welfare

Strategic considerations for upcoming EU farmed animal legislation

Neil Dullaghan

This report analyzes upcoming EU farmed animal legislation and suggests strategic priorities for funders and advocates during policy formation and negotiations.

Global Catastrophic Risks

Health and happiness research topics—Part 3: The sHALY: developing subjective wellbeing-based health metrics

Derek Foster

This post proposes subjective-wellbeing-based health metrics that could improve QALY and DALY weighting and shift health prioritization toward wellbeing.

Global Health & Development

Health and happiness research topics—part 2: the HALY+: improving preference-based health metrics

Derek Foster

This post proposes improvements to QALY and DALY-style health metrics so they better capture subjective wellbeing and avoid resource misallocation.

Global Health & Development

Health and happiness research topics—part 1: background on QALYs and DALYs

Derek Foster

This series introduction explains QALYs, DALYs, and health-adjusted life-year metrics, then outlines problems and research directions for better evaluation.

Animal Welfare

Research summary: the intensity of valenced experience across species

Jason Schukraft

Summarizes research on whether the intensity range of positive and negative experiences differs across species and how that affects moral weight.

Animal Welfare

Differences in the intensity of valenced experience across species

Jason Schukraft

This moral weight report explores whether species differ in the intensity range of positive and negative experiences and how such differences might be measured.

Animal Welfare

Live-shackle slaughter vs. CAS survey

Neil Dullaghan

Survey finds most Americans view live-shackle slaughter as inhumane and prefer controlled atmosphere systems, with many willing to switch or pay more.

Animal Welfare

The scale of direct human impact on invertebrates

Abraham Rowe

This report estimates humans directly kill or use vast numbers of invertebrates annually, mostly through pesticides, and highlights neglected welfare implications.

Animal Welfare

Do countries comply with EU animal welfare laws?

Neil Dullaghan

This report finds EU animal welfare laws often require enforcement to matter, with major noncompliance affecting hens, sows, pigs, and broilers.

Animal Welfare

Ways EU law might matter for farmed animals

Neil Dullaghan

This post explains why EU law may be a high-impact arena for farmed animal welfare, covering scale, neglectedness, tractability, and paths to change.

Animal Welfare

Research summary: the subjective experience of time

Jason Schukraft

Introduces research on subjective time experience and how species differences in temporal perception could affect moral weight estimates.

Animal Welfare

Does critical flicker-fusion frequency track the subjective experience of time?

Jason Schukraft

This report evaluates whether critical flicker-fusion frequency can proxy animals' subjective experience of time, finding it potentially useful but limited.

Animal Welfare

The subjective experience of time: welfare implications

Jason Schukraft

This report argues species may differ in subjective rates of experience, affecting capacity for welfare and the moral weight of painful or pleasurable events.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2019: EA cities and the cost of living

David Moss

We examine the cost of living in the cities with the largest numbers of EAs. Most cities with large EA populations are very expensive to live in. This may pose a barrier to EAs wishing to live and work in cities with lots of EAs

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2019: How many EAs live in the main EA hubs?

David Moss

The 2019 EA Survey estimates how many EAs live in major hubs, finding large concentrations in the Bay Area, London, Oxford, and Cambridge.

Animal Welfare

Insects raised for food and feed — global scale, practices, and policy

Abraham Rowe

Estimates the scale of insects farmed for food and feed, reviews industry practices, and identifies possible welfare reforms.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2019: How many people are there in the EA community?

Neil Dullaghan

Estimates the size of the effective altruism community by comparing EA Survey participation with other data sources.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2019: Engagement Levels

Neil Dullaghan

The 2019 EA Survey examines engagement levels, activities, group memberships, and predictors of high engagement within the EA community.

Animal Welfare

How much do Europeans care about fish welfare? (An analysis of relevant surveys)

Saulius Simcikas

Analyzes European survey evidence on concern for fish welfare, finding public concern may be stronger than animal advocates often assume.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2019: Community Information

David Moss

The 2019 EA Survey examines changes in interest, barriers to involvement, retention factors, and reasons people disengage from the EA community.

Animal Welfare

How to measure capacity for welfare and moral status

Jason Schukraft

This report outlines two ways to estimate animals' capacity for welfare and moral status: expert tradeoff surveys and empirical proxy-based models.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2019: How EAs Get Involved in EA

David Moss

EA Survey 2019 analysis of how people first hear about and become involved in effective altruism, including contacts, 80,000 Hours, and GiveWell.

Animal Welfare

Comparisons of capacity for welfare and moral status across species

Jason Schukraft

This report examines how differences in animals' cognitive, emotional, social, and neurological traits might affect capacity for welfare and moral status.

Animal Welfare

Estimates of global captive vertebrate numbers

Saulius Simcikas

Compiles estimates of captive vertebrate populations worldwide to help animal advocates compare scales and identify neglected welfare issues.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2019: Donation Data

Neil Dullaghan

EA Survey 2019 analysis of donation amounts, donation shares, and cause areas, including concentration among top donors and income percentages given.

Animal Welfare

Snails used for human consumption: the case of meat and slime

Daniela R. Waldhorn

Assesses the scale and welfare concerns of snails raised for meat and slime, including farming conditions, live trade, and boiling slaughter.

Animal Welfare

Is vegetarianism/veganism growing more partisan over time?

Jacob Schmiess Jacob Schmiess

This analysis of US food survey data finds veg*nism is more common among liberals, but reported rates among conservatives may be rising similarly or faster.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2019: Geographic Distribution of EAs

Neil Dullaghan

The 2019 EA Survey finds most respondents live in wealthy Western countries, with geographic differences in cause priorities, engagement, and city concentration.

Animal Welfare

Intervention profile: ballot initiatives

Jason Schukraft

This profile explains ballot initiatives as a direct-democracy policy tool and argues they merit further EA investigation despite uncertain cost-effectiveness.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2019: Careers and Skills

The 2019 EA Survey examines planned career paths, skills, barriers to EA careers, and the pool of respondents interested in EA-aligned work.

Animal Welfare

EA Survey 2019: Cause Prioritization

Neil Dullaghan

The 2019 EA Survey finds global poverty remains the most popular single cause, while longtermist causes dominate when respondents choose one broad area.

Global Catastrophic Risks

Will the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons affect nuclear deproliferation through legal channels?

Luisa Rodriguez

This post assesses whether the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons is likely to reduce nuclear proliferation through formal legal channels.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2019: Community Demographics & Characteristics

Neil Dullaghan

The 2019 EA Survey reports demographic patterns in the EA community, including age, gender, ethnicity, education, politics, religion, and diet.

Animal Welfare

Accuracy issues in FAO animal numbers

Saulius Simcikas

This article identifies inconsistencies in FAOSTAT animal-number data and recommends verifying figures before using them for animal advocacy decisions.

Surveys & Data Analysis

Local EA group organizers survey 2019

David Moss

The 2019 Local EA Group Organizers Survey profiles group growth, membership, activities, regional differences, organizer needs, and movement-building outcomes.

Animal Welfare

Next steps in invertebrate welfare, part 3: understanding attitudes and possibilities

Daniela R. Waldhorn

This invertebrate welfare post explores public attitudes, indirect advocacy options, and research questions relevant to making interventions tractable.

Animal Welfare

Managed honey bee welfare: problems and potential interventions

Jason Schukraft

This report surveys welfare problems facing managed honey bees and possible advocacy, research, policy, and demand-reduction interventions amid major uncertainty.

Animal Welfare

Next steps in invertebrate welfare, part 2: possible interventions

Daniela R. Waldhorn

This post explores possible interventions for wild and human-managed invertebrates, plus research questions needed to assess feasible welfare improvements.

Animal Welfare

Next steps in invertebrate welfare, part 1: fundamental research

Daniela R. Waldhorn

This post argues invertebrate welfare work should prioritize fundamental research on sentience, consciousness, and the quality of invertebrates' lives.

Animal Welfare

Opinion: estimating invertebrate sentience

Jason Schukraft Marcus A. Davis Daniela R. Waldhorn Peter Wildeford

This opinion piece presents differing views from Rethink Priorities researchers on whether and how to publish numerical estimates of invertebrate sentience.

Animal Welfare

Deliberation may improve decision-making

Neil Dullaghan

This essay examines how deliberative reforms might improve institutional decision-making, including factual reasoning, opinion change, and longterm thinking.

Animal Welfare

Would a reduction in the number of owned cats outdoors in Canada and the US increase animal welfare?

Kim Cuddington

This report reevaluates outdoor cat predation in the US and Canada and examines welfare tradeoffs for cats, wild animals, and rodent control.

Animal Welfare

Effective animal advocacy resources

Saulius Simcikas

This article contains a list of research organizations, newsletters, research libraries, personal blogs, conferences, podcasts, funds, notable written works and other links associated with Effective Animal Advocacy (EAA) movement. The list is biased because I only included resources that I know of.

Animal Welfare

Corporate commitments breakdown

Saulius Simcikas

This post introduces a spreadsheet which visualizes numbers of corporate cage-free and broiler commitments made in different years, regions, and industries. The data for the spreadsheet is taken from chickenwatch.org.

Animal Welfare

Corporate campaigns affect 9 to 120 years of chicken life per dollar spent

Saulius Simcikas

Estimates the impact of corporate cage-free and broiler welfare campaigns, finding large numbers of chicken life-years affected per dollar spent.

Animal Welfare

Invertebrate welfare cause profile

Jason Schukraft

Cause profile arguing invertebrate welfare is highly neglected despite the vast number of invertebrates and modest evidence of sentience in some groups.

Global Catastrophic Risks

How many people would be killed as a direct result of a US-Russia nuclear exchange?

Luisa Rodriguez

Models direct fatalities from a US-Russia nuclear exchange using assumptions about targeting, weapon yields, city populations, and military facilities.

Global Catastrophic Risks

How likely is a nuclear exchange between the US and Russia?

Luisa Rodriguez

This nuclear risk post estimates the annual chance of any nuclear war at about 1.1%, and US-Russia nuclear war at about 0.38%.

Global Catastrophic Risks

How bad would nuclear winter caused by a US-Russia nuclear exchange be?

Luisa Rodriguez

This post estimates a US-Russia nuclear war would likely produce severe climate effects, but less smoke than many Cold War nuclear winter assumptions imply.

Global Catastrophic Risks

Would US and Russian nuclear forces survive a first strike?

Luisa Rodriguez

This post argues US and Russian mobile nuclear forces would likely survive a first strike, preserving each side's ability to launch a massive second strike.

Global Catastrophic Risks

Which nuclear wars should worry us most?

Luisa Rodriguez

This post ranks nuclear exchange scenarios by likely harm, identifying US-Russia, India-Pakistan, and China-related conflicts as especially concerning.

Animal Welfare

What do unconscious processes in humans tell us about sentience?

Daniela R. Waldhorn

This report examines which proposed indicators of invertebrate sentience can occur unconsciously in humans, refining how such features should be interpreted.

Animal Welfare

Invertebrate sentience: summary of findings, part 2

Daniela R. Waldhorn

This post summarizes Rethink Priorities' invertebrate sentience findings by taxon, using evidence on features potentially linked to valenced experience.

Animal Welfare

Invertebrate sentience: summary of findings, part 1

This post summarizes Rethink Priorities' invertebrate sentience findings by feature, drawing from a database of evidence across invertebrate taxa.

Animal Welfare

Invertebrate sentience table

Daniela R. Waldhorn

This table compiles evidence on 53 potential indicators of valenced experience across representative invertebrate taxa, vertebrates, plants, and other organisms.

Animal Welfare

Features relevant to invertebrate sentience, part 3

Jason Schukraft

In this, the final of three posts on features potentially relevant to invertebrate sentience, we assess 9 learning indicators, 4 navigational skills, and 7 mood state behaviors.

Animal Welfare

Features relevant to invertebrate sentience, part 2

Jason Schukraft

In this, the second of three posts on features potentially relevant to invertebrate sentience, we assess 5 drug responses, 5 motivational tradeoffs, and 5 feats of cognitive sophistication.

Animal Welfare

Invertebrate sentience: summary of findings, part 1

Daniela R. Waldhorn

This post summarizes Rethink Priorities' invertebrate sentience findings by feature, drawing from a database of evidence across invertebrate taxa.

Animal Welfare

Features relevant to invertebrate sentience, part 1

Jason Schukraft

In this, the first of three posts on features potentially relevant to invertebrate sentience, we assess 10 anatomical and evolutionary features and 5 types of noxious stimuli reactions.

Animal Welfare

Invertebrate sentience: a useful empirical resource

Jason Schukraft

This essay introduces Rethink Priorities' database of 53 potential indicators of invertebrate sentience and explains its purpose, strengths, and limits.

Animal Welfare

Insect herbivores, life history and wild animal welfare

Kim Cuddington

This post argues life history categories can obscure welfare-relevant differences among wild animals, using insect herbivores as a case study.

Animal Welfare

Life history classification

Kim Cuddington

This post explains life history classification and why simple categories are insufficient for drawing conclusions about wild animal welfare.

Surveys & Data Analysis

Is EA growing? EA growth metrics for 2018

Peter Wildeford

Reviews 2018 metrics on effective altruism growth across awareness, commitment, engagement, donations, and career changes.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2018: How long do EAs stay in EA?

EA Survey 2018 analysis of how long people stay involved in effective altruism and why some drift away or leave the community.

Global Health & Development

Cost-Effectiveness of RC Forward

Neil Dullaghan

Cost-effectiveness analysis of RC Forward, estimating how much the Canadian donation platform increased counterfactual giving to high-impact charities.

Animal Welfare

35-150 billion fish are raised in captivity to be released into the wild every year

Saulius Simcikas

Estimates that 35-150 billion fish are raised for stocking each year and reviews welfare concerns in hatcheries and post-release survival.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2018: How welcoming is EA?

Neil Dullaghan

EA Survey 2018 analysis of how welcoming respondents find the effective altruism community, including variation by tenure and demographic factors.

Animal Welfare

Rodents farmed for pet snake food

Saulius Simcikas

This report estimates the scale of rodents farmed for pet snake food, describes welfare concerns, and explores whether interventions may be tractable.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2018: Geographic Differences in EA

David Moss

EA Survey 2018 analysis of geographic differences in the community, including national composition, cause priorities, diet, and local group membership.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2018: Where People First Hear About EA and Influences on Involvement

David Moss

In this post we explore how people first hear about Effective Altruism, and influences on people’s involvement in EA.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2018: Group Membership

David Moss

In this post we explore which EA groups EA Survey 2018 respondents were members of. We find reasonably large numbers of EAs are members of some groups (such as EA Facebook and Local Groups), but much smaller numbers are involved across many groups.

Animal Welfare

Will companies meet their animal welfare commitments?

Saulius Simcikas

Assesses whether companies will fulfill animal welfare commitments, reviewing progress, delays, broken pledges, and risks to cage-free and broiler reforms.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2018: Cause Selection

David Moss

EA Survey 2018 analysis of cause prioritization, showing variation across respondent groups and levels of involvement.

Animal Welfare

Detecting morally significant pain in nonhumans: some philosophical difficulties

Jason Schukraft

Other humans merit moral concern. We think many nonhumans merit moral concern too. But how do we know? And which nonhumans? Chimpanzees? Chickens? Bumblebees? Protozoa? Roombas? Rocks? Where and how do we draw a line?

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2018: Donation Data

David Moss

Median donations were slightly higher than in 2016 and total donations much higher. A small number of very large donors account for the majority of the totals donated. A majority of EAs report donating less than they would like due to financial constraints

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2018: Subscribers and Identifiers

Lauren Whetstone

The 2018 EA Survey compares people who identify as effective altruists with broader subscribers, finding similar demographics but lower subscriber involvement.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2018: How do people get involved in EA?

David Moss

EA Survey 2018 analysis of how people first hear about and become involved in effective altruism, with 80,000 Hours gaining influence over time.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2018: Distribution and Analysis Methodology

Lauren Whetstone

We’re excited to continue what should be a lot of analysis and thoughtful conversation over the results from the 2018 EA Survey. This post outlines methodology and subsequent posts will outline different facets of the results that we analyzed and found noteworthy for the community.

Surveys & Data Analysis

EA Survey 2018: Community Demographics & Characteristics

Lauren Whetstone

The 2018 EA Survey reports demographic patterns among respondents, including age, gender, education, diet, politics, careers, and relationships.

Animal Welfare

Animal Equality showed that advocating for diet change works. But is it cost-effective?

Marcus A. Davis Peter Wildeford

This analysis reviews a study of video outreach for diet change, finding evidence it can work but questioning its cost-effectiveness for animals.

Global Health & Development

What did we take away from our work on vaccines?

Marcus A. Davis Peter Wildeford

This post reflects on vaccine cost-effectiveness research, emphasizing large model uncertainty, the strength of AMF as a baseline, and biosecurity implications.

Global Health & Development

What is the cost-effectiveness of developing a vaccine?

Marcus A. Davis Peter Wildeford

This report estimates the cost-effectiveness of developing vaccines using historical case studies, finding wide ranges and high sensitivity to assumptions.

Global Health & Development

Analyzing the health and economic benefits of vaccines

Peter Wildeford Marcus A. Davis

Explains the health and economic benefits of vaccines, including illness prevention, deaths averted, productivity gains, and broader social value.

Global Health & Development

Analyzing the cost of vaccine distribution

Peter Wildeford Marcus A. Davis

This post analyzes vaccine rollout costs, including manufacturing, logistics, cold chains, staffing, waste, monitoring, and how infrastructure affects scale.

Global Health & Development

How much does it cost to research and develop a vaccine?

Peter Wildeford Marcus A. Davis

This post estimates the cost of vaccine R&D, reviewing literature and examples to build toward vaccine cost-effectiveness analysis.

Animal Welfare

What is animal farming in rural Zambia like? A site visit

Peter Wildeford

This site visit describes rural animal farming and slaughter practices in Zambia to provide qualitative context on animal welfare in developing regions.

Global Health & Development

Analyzing the timeline of vaccine research

Peter Wildeford

Explores the timeline and cost-effectiveness of vaccine research and development, using vaccines as a benchmark for global health interventions.
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